BFSG Blog

Financial Resources & News

Monthly Market Update (July): 3 Things You Need to Know

Investors bought the dip in July on hopes the Federal Reserve is about to change course and relax policy before inflation has even peaked. Here are 3 things you need to know: July was the best month for the S&P 500 since November 2020, when the first vaccine trial results were reported.High yield corporate bonds returned +5.9% in July (total return), the strongest monthly performance since...

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BFSG Investor’s Forum & Luncheon

We are grateful to our clients who joined us at BFSG Investors’ Forum & Luncheon in Newport Beach at Balboa Bay Resort for in-depth discussions on geopolitics & globalization with Matt Gertken of BCA Research, innovations in medicine with Dr. Jeffrey Golden of Cedars-Sinai, and how blockchain works and the basics of cryptocurrencies with BFSG’s own Steven Yamshon, PhD, and team. Check...

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Monthly Market Update (June): 3 Things You Need to Know

The first half of the year was difficult for investors as the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) began an aggressive tightening cycle to fight inflation sitting at 40-year highs and risk-off sentiment pervaded. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 index dropped 20.6%, marking its worst first half of a year since 1970.Bonds, as measured by the U.S. Aggregate Index, had their worst first...

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Set the Bear Trap: The Well-Worn Bearish Narrative

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Some say it is a chaotic and frustrating time to be an investor. Rising employment and wages and resilient consumer spending are offset by rising inflation driven mostly by volatile commodity markets and supply chain disruptions. Higher corporate earnings estimates are being met by declining price-earnings multiples. And the Russia-Ukraine...

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The Supply Chain, the Fed, and Lingering Inflation

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The first link in the supply chain, the number of ships backed up in Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors, is in sharp decline as the accompanying chart from BCA shows. Source: BCA Research The harder part is relieving the structural scarcity of trucks, drivers, and logistics (i.e., port workers, warehouse capacity) to decompress...

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What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes

By:  Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is poised to start raising rates today, and with the S&P 500 (1) down over 10% off its highs, is it time to declare the bull market dead? History would say no – in fact, a resounding no. Jess Menton’s article in Bloomberg, titled “What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes: A Historical Guide”, does a...

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Ignore the Noise – Focus on What You Can Control

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Let’s cut through the ongoing cross currents of Wall Street and other pundits’ chatter about supply chains, the pandemic, the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”), and market volatility to concentrate on the proven drivers of stock market investing. History attests to the maxim that if you don’t expect a recession nearby, stay invested in stocks. That...

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SPACs Go from Red Hot to Ice Cold

By:  Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst What a difference a year makes. Last spring, you couldn’t avoid the topic SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) in any financial publication you laid your eyes on. Now the SPAC conversation is still prevalent, but for opposite reasons. Investor sentiment has dissipated dramatically in recent months as the prospect of higher inflation...

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Monthly Market Update (December): 3 Things You Need to Know

Global equities ended the year near record highs even as the current surge in COVID-19 cases surpassed peak levels last seen since the start of the pandemic. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 finished up +27% for 2021 hitting 70 all-time highs and completing its best three-year stretch since 1999 - “Let’s Go Crazy”!Not everyone was “Partying Like It’s 1999”. The areas of...

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Monthly Market Update (November): 3 Things You Need to Know

November returns would have looked very different had the month ended at Thanksgiving, but the last three days turned global markets on a head. Here are 3 things you need to know: The gradual removal of pandemic-era monetary policy accommodation in the United States has begun with the Federal Reserve’s announcement on November 3 that it would start to scale back its bond-buying program.President...

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Is the Real Unemployment Rate 2.3%?

Source: Michael Liebowitz, Realinvestmentadvice.com By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Is the real unemployment rate 2.3%? If you back out people who quit voluntarily to look for better paying jobs, the answer is yes. Quitters are still “employed”. They are in transition to other employment opportunities and should be considered as part of the labor force. If you adjust...

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Monthly Market Update: 3 Things You Need to Know

September marked a much weaker month for financial markets. Here are 3 things you need to know: Inflation moderated across a few major categories that have been the most impacted by supply chain shortages and pent-up consumer demand, such as used cars, airlines and hotels. However, energy prices surged during the month with WTI oil increasing +9.5% for the month.Expiring extended federal...

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August Monthly Economic Summary

Last month was an interesting month for the markets and below is the economic summary for August.  As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss more in-depth do not hesitate to give us a call! Sources: Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market...

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Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Speech

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The stock market (1) has reacted bullishly today to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. It was his first public admission of where he stood on tapering that pushed stocks higher: “At the FOMC’s recent July meeting, I was of...

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Monthly Economic Summary (July)

Inflation has now well surpassed the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) target, as the core PCE accelerated to +3.5% year-over-year.  The FOMC recognizes the need to reduce accommodation in the quarters ahead and we believe it will start tapering the pace of its purchases in December. As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss the economy or markets more in-depth do not hesitate to give...

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