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Monthly Market Update (December): 3 Things You Need to Know

2022 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an 'Annus Horribilis'. May the New Year 2023 be more prosperous. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 index was off (-19.4%), the worst yearly decline since 2008.Long-term treasuries were down (-30%) as interest rates rose the...

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Monthly Market Update (August): 3 Things You Need to Know

The S&P 500 index experienced its worst August in seven years as traders weighed the prospect of more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) on interest rates to rein in inflation — even if that means some pain for households and businesses.  Here are 3 things you need to know: The unemployment rate in August backed up to 3.7% (from 3.5%) driven by a huge increase in the...

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Monthly Market Update (April): 3 Things You Need to Know

The Fed Funds futures market is pricing in roughly 10 quarter-point rate hikes this year. The benchmark 10-year yield was up +56 basis points for April. 2022 so far has seen the worst total return start for the 10-year Treasury (or proxies) since 1788, just before George Washington’s presidency. It appears that much of this tightening cycle has already been priced into the bond market – even...

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Monthly Market Update (March): 3 Things You Need to Know

Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals.  Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11th and although Wall Street analysts have recently...

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Monthly Market Update (February): 3 Things You Need to Know

February was a month of two halves. Hawkish central banks, high inflation and a strong U.S. jobs report dominated the first half of the month. However, the Russia/Ukraine situation has taken over the narrative for the second half of the month and has carried over into March. Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine. Here are 3 things you need to know: Real gross domestic product...

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Monthly Market Update (December): 3 Things You Need to Know

Global equities ended the year near record highs even as the current surge in COVID-19 cases surpassed peak levels last seen since the start of the pandemic. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 finished up +27% for 2021 hitting 70 all-time highs and completing its best three-year stretch since 1999 - “Let’s Go Crazy”!Not everyone was “Partying Like It’s 1999”. The areas of...

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Monthly Market Update (November): 3 Things You Need to Know

November returns would have looked very different had the month ended at Thanksgiving, but the last three days turned global markets on a head. Here are 3 things you need to know: The gradual removal of pandemic-era monetary policy accommodation in the United States has begun with the Federal Reserve’s announcement on November 3 that it would start to scale back its bond-buying program.President...

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The November Employment Head Fake

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The print of the monthly payroll employment number brings Wall Street cheers or anguish, filling the market airwaves with new prognostications of economic growth or stagnation. The November release was a clear example of such harrumphing. According to the Labor Department, employment rose by just 210,000, far below the consensus of a...

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Monthly Market Update: 3 Things You Need to Know

Many equity markets saw their best month of the year (including the S&P 500), whilst commodities led the way. Here are 3 things you need to know: Real GDP growth slowed substantially in the 3rd quarter to a 2.0% annual rate, after 6.5% growth in the first half of the year. Recent data points to a pick-up of economic momentum for the 4th quarter.Core CPI inflation for September rose to 4.04%....

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