It is unclear if anyone would have expected the equity market to be touching all-time highs if you had told them the economy would be navigating 15%-ish effective tariff rates. Let’s see what August brings. A notoriously difficult month to predict given thin liquidity. Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. U.S. ‘tech-ceptionalism’ made a comeback with the NASDAQ (+3.7%) posting 14 record highs in the month, the highest since the 15 in December 1999. The Magnificent 7 climbed +5.8% in July, taking it to +7.5% year-to-date (YTD).
2. The broad dollar index was up +3.2%, its best month since April 2022, ending a run of six consecutive declines during the first half of the year. YTD it’s still down -7.85%.
3. Bitcoin rose another +8.26% to $116,491, having peaked at a record high of $123k on July 14. Crypto assets were supported by new U.S. Congressional legislation, including the GENIUS Act which formalizes stablecoins in the U.S.

Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; Deutsche Bank; FactSet.

Indices:

• The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
• The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
• The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell Index.
• The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

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