Financial Resources & News

Great Expectations – Q3 2022 GDP

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 2.6% was in line with the consensus. But it was anything but normal. The increase was entirely driven by a large increase in the trade balance. Net exports surged 2.8% due to a 1.6% increase in exports of energy commodities and military hardware, and a 1.2% decrease in imports. Inventory...

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Set the Bear Trap: The Well-Worn Bearish Narrative

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Some say it is a chaotic and frustrating time to be an investor. Rising employment and wages and resilient consumer spending are offset by rising inflation driven mostly by volatile commodity markets and supply chain disruptions. Higher corporate earnings estimates are being met by declining price-earnings multiples. And the Russia-Ukraine...

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The Supply Chain, the Fed, and Lingering Inflation

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The first link in the supply chain, the number of ships backed up in Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors, is in sharp decline as the accompanying chart from BCA shows. Source: BCA Research The harder part is relieving the structural scarcity of trucks, drivers, and logistics (i.e., port workers, warehouse capacity) to decompress...

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What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes

By:  Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is poised to start raising rates today, and with the S&P 500 (1) down over 10% off its highs, is it time to declare the bull market dead? History would say no – in fact, a resounding no. Jess Menton’s article in Bloomberg, titled “What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes: A Historical Guide”, does a...

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Ignore the Noise – Focus on What You Can Control

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Let’s cut through the ongoing cross currents of Wall Street and other pundits’ chatter about supply chains, the pandemic, the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”), and market volatility to concentrate on the proven drivers of stock market investing. History attests to the maxim that if you don’t expect a recession nearby, stay invested in stocks. That...

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