We wrapped up September and boy was it one to remember but for all the wrong reasons. With fears of central bank over-tightening, the S&P 500 index dipped to a new 2022 low. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 3.8%, marking the quickest re-rating in daily yields since 2009. A 60/40 balanced portfolio of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is now down -20.2% year-to-date through September 30th, the worst return in nearly 35 years (the earliest we have total returns for both the S&P 500 and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is 1988). Maybe one positive is that everything is getting cheaper!

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. While the Federal Reserve has done the equivalent of 12 rate hikes of 0.25%, the bond market has already priced in 5 more.
2. The yield-to-worst on the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond index has nearly tripled over the course of the year to 4.75%.
3. Only ~20% of S&P 500 companies have dividend yields higher than the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (as of 8/31/22).

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet; Goldman Sachs Asset Management.; John Hancock Investment Management.
2. Indices:
   • The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

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