Heightened volatility, robust economic data, and concerns about the sustainability of government finances appear to be driving the recent movement in intermediate to long-term Treasury yields with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note topping 5% for the first time since 2007. For now, the stock market is taking its cues from the bond market. Here are 3 things you need to know:
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned -1.58% in October.
- The S&P 500 fell (-2.1%) for a 3rd month in a row – which is the first time that’s happened since March 2020.
- Oil (WTI -10.8%) closed at the lows of the month with the gains driven by the geopolitical risk not holding.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet; Deutsche Bank.
- The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
- The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
- The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).
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