Concerns mounted around inflation and geopolitics in April. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in stronger than expected, with many of the usual suspects driving the bulk of this strength. In our opinion, stalling progress on disinflation limits the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June, although underlying disinflationary trends should allow inflation to march lower over the course of this year. Here are 3 things you need to know:
- April was the worst month for the S&P 500 (-4.1% in total return terms) and US Treasuries (-2.4%) in 6 months.
- Commodities did well in general, and copper (+13.9%) saw its largest monthly gain since February 2021 amidst a supply squeeze. Gold prices (+2.5%) rose for a 3rd consecutive month.
- The 30-year mortgage rate surpassed 7% for the first time in 2024.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet.
Indices:
- The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
- The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
- The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).
Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.
