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Monthly Market Update (November): 3 Things You Need to Know

Christmas came early this year for the markets. The idea that falling inflation could mean that the end to the rate hiking cycle is not far off gave both stocks and bonds a boost. Here are 3 things you need to know: The October consumer price index (CPI) showed prices rose 7.7% from a year ago and 0.4% from the prior month, according to the Labor Department, both below expectations. Prices of...

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Great Expectations – Q3 2022 GDP

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 2.6% was in line with the consensus. But it was anything but normal. The increase was entirely driven by a large increase in the trade balance. Net exports surged 2.8% due to a 1.6% increase in exports of energy commodities and military hardware, and a 1.2% decrease in imports. Inventory...

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Monthly Market Update (July): 3 Things You Need to Know

Investors bought the dip in July on hopes the Federal Reserve is about to change course and relax policy before inflation has even peaked. Here are 3 things you need to know: July was the best month for the S&P 500 since November 2020, when the first vaccine trial results were reported.High yield corporate bonds returned +5.9% in July (total return), the strongest monthly performance since...

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Set the Bear Trap: The Well-Worn Bearish Narrative

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Some say it is a chaotic and frustrating time to be an investor. Rising employment and wages and resilient consumer spending are offset by rising inflation driven mostly by volatile commodity markets and supply chain disruptions. Higher corporate earnings estimates are being met by declining price-earnings multiples. And the Russia-Ukraine...

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Monthly Market Update (May): 3 Things You Need to Know

From the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009 until now, the combined balance sheets of the Fed, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan grew from approximately $5.3 trillion to over $23.7 trillion.(1) The markets were awash in liquidity over the past decade, and the rising tide lifted virtually all financial assets. Central banks around the world are on track to hike rates more than...

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Monthly Market Update (March): 3 Things You Need to Know

Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals.  Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11th and although Wall Street analysts have recently...

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Monthly Market Update (January): 3 Things You Need to Know

Fed predictions, Omicron, geopolitical tensions, oh my! This year’s stock market weakness culminated with some of the sharpest intraday swings since the start of the pandemic. However, the stock market is forward looking, and investors may have already priced in this information. Here are 3 things you need to know: A sell-off among leading tech stocks contributed to a 9% decline for the Nasdaq...

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Monthly Market Update (November): 3 Things You Need to Know

November returns would have looked very different had the month ended at Thanksgiving, but the last three days turned global markets on a head. Here are 3 things you need to know: The gradual removal of pandemic-era monetary policy accommodation in the United States has begun with the Federal Reserve’s announcement on November 3 that it would start to scale back its bond-buying program.President...

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