Expectations for rate cuts buoyed the industries that have been hit hardest by the Fed’s campaign of rate hikes and the market rally started to broaden out. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 eked out a +1.2% gain in July. The “Magnificent 7” was down -0.6% in total return terms thanks to a strong final day, but that’s still a big shift from gains of more than +9% in both May...
Stock market concentration became more extreme during the quarter. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 make up just over 30% of the index which is the highest in history. The catalyst for a change in market leaders likely comes from a regime or market/economic change. Here are 3 things you need to know: In Q2, the S&P 500 was up 4.28% with the top 10 stocks contributing 5.60%, meaning the...
In May there was a generally positive picture across the board after what was a challenging April. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 was up +5.0% (total return) and hit another record, but the rally continued to be a narrow one. For example, the Magnificent 7 rose +9.1%, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 was only up +2.8%. It was a very strong month for several precious...
Concerns mounted around inflation and geopolitics in April. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in stronger than expected, with many of the usual suspects driving the bulk of this strength. In our opinion, stalling progress on disinflation limits the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June, although underlying disinflationary trends should allow inflation to march lower over the course...
Several all-time highs were achieved by the major equity indices in price during February. That included an all-time high for the Nikkei, surpassing its previous record from 1989, and the S&P 500 also broke through the 5,000 mark. Here are 3 things you need to know: The Magnificent 7 (+12.1%) powered the U.S. equity gains, posting their best performance in 9 months and now +14.1% YTD....
More than ever, we are seeing individuals begin to show more interest in investing in alternative investments. Alternative investments can be hard to define but for the sake of this article, we will focus on Private Equity, Real Estate investments, and other non-traditional investing options. These investments are more complex than traditional investments like stocks and bonds and are therefore...
The resilience of the U.S. economy will likely be a continuing theme in the months to come, as will be the Fed’s timing (the Fed elected to hold interest rates steady at the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year on January 31st). Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 recorded new highs and was up +1.59% in January. The Magnificent 7 accounted for 45% of the...
Many prospective clients that we work with do not have any investments saved since they believe that the stock market is akin to gambling. I would like to take some time to illustrate why that sentiment is wrong and how probability, Roulette, and financial planning are all (somehow) related to each other. The chart below highlights the fact that the stock market had a 53.6% chance of having an...
By: Steven Yamshon, Ph.D., Managing Principal It isn’t often that we talk about geopolitical events, but it has great relevance because geopolitical events affect economies. Until shortly, after World War II, the economic courses taught in the universities were not split into macroeconomics and microeconomics. It was taught as just plain economics and was often labeled political economy. Why on...
The boogie man (i.e., the Federal Reserve) showed up early rather than waiting for Halloween and major stock and bond market indices were down for the month keeping the historical pattern typically seen during September intact. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 index closed the month down 4.87% - its worst month since December 2022 and the fourth year in a row that the index...
Risk assets continued to rally, benefiting from increased confidence of a ‘soft landing’, decent corporate earnings, and bullish investor sentiment. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 gained 19.5% through July for its best performance since 1997 and the Nasdaq surged 37.1% for its best showing since 1975. Both indexes have posted gains for five consecutive months. In July, the...
Out of nowhere, equities entered a bull market on June 8th after exiting a 248-trading-day bear market (its longest since 1948). Here are 3 things you need to know: The Nasdaq Composite surged 32% through the end of June, its best first-half performance in 40 years, far outpacing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained 4%, and the S&P 500, which rose 4.5%. Three-month U.S. Treasury...
The U.S. stock market climbed the proverbial wall of worry in May. The month started with fresh rounds of concern about U.S. regional banks (First Republic closed on May 1st), another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the middle of the month, and intense negotiations around the U.S. debt ceiling towards the end of the month. Here are 3 things you need to know: Technology stocks surged amidst...
BFSG’s CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals, Michael Allbee, CFP® and Paul Horn, CFP®, CPWA®, were invited to be guest speakers for the “It’s Your Money!” workshop series. For the “Investment World” session, Mike and Paul focused on how the investment world gets compensated. Learn the differences between brokers versus advisors, what does the word “fiduciary” mean, how to find an advisor,...
There was a big repricing of inflation expectations over February, as the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an uptick in inflation and the January Jobs report was much stronger than expected. Here are 3 things you need to know: 2yr U.S. inflation breakevens were up +85 basis points (bps) to 3.18%, having ended January at just 2.33%. This was the second largest monthly move higher since...
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