Stock market concentration became more extreme during the quarter. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 make up just over 30% of the index which is the highest in history. The catalyst for a change in market leaders likely comes from a regime or market/economic change. Here are 3 things you need to know: In Q2, the S&P 500 was up 4.28% with the top 10 stocks contributing 5.60%, meaning the...
In May there was a generally positive picture across the board after what was a challenging April. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 was up +5.0% (total return) and hit another record, but the rally continued to be a narrow one. For example, the Magnificent 7 rose +9.1%, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 was only up +2.8%. It was a very strong month for several precious...
Concerns mounted around inflation and geopolitics in April. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in stronger than expected, with many of the usual suspects driving the bulk of this strength. In our opinion, stalling progress on disinflation limits the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June, although underlying disinflationary trends should allow inflation to march lower over the course...
Several all-time highs were achieved by the major equity indices in price during February. That included an all-time high for the Nikkei, surpassing its previous record from 1989, and the S&P 500 also broke through the 5,000 mark. Here are 3 things you need to know: The Magnificent 7 (+12.1%) powered the U.S. equity gains, posting their best performance in 9 months and now +14.1% YTD....
The resilience of the U.S. economy will likely be a continuing theme in the months to come, as will be the Fed’s timing (the Fed elected to hold interest rates steady at the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year on January 31st). Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 recorded new highs and was up +1.59% in January. The Magnificent 7 accounted for 45% of the...
Markets closed November in a positive mood thanks to tentative signs of economic moderation in the U.S. and falling inflation across developed markets. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P (+9.1%) saw the best month since July 2022, and reversed three months of losses. It was the best month for the Bloomberg US Bond Aggregate Index (+4.53%) since May 1985. Real estate’s (U.S. REITs)...
Risk assets continued to rally, benefiting from increased confidence of a ‘soft landing’, decent corporate earnings, and bullish investor sentiment. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 gained 19.5% through July for its best performance since 1997 and the Nasdaq surged 37.1% for its best showing since 1975. Both indexes have posted gains for five consecutive months. In July, the...
Out of nowhere, equities entered a bull market on June 8th after exiting a 248-trading-day bear market (its longest since 1948). Here are 3 things you need to know: The Nasdaq Composite surged 32% through the end of June, its best first-half performance in 40 years, far outpacing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained 4%, and the S&P 500, which rose 4.5%. Three-month U.S. Treasury...
Wall Street closed out a winning April after more companies said their profits at the start of the year weren’t as bad as expected. Here are 3 things you need to know: US real GDP rose 1.1% annualized in the first quarter, 0.8% below consensus expectations. While below expectations on the surface, a deeper look reveals a degree of underlying resiliency. Much of the slowdown can be attributed to...
Despite the banking-sector turmoil seen in March, the S&P 500 rose in March, helped by strong returns from growth stocks that were buoyed by falling bond yields. Here are 3 things you need to know: The Federal Reserve continued to hike interest rates by 25 bps in March bringing the Federal funds rate range to 4.75% to 5.00%. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted, the current bank stress will...
Overall, January continued the strong bounce back seen for most global assets since October even if the performance seen in the first half of the month wasn’t quite matched in the second half. It was still the best January in several years for many assets. Here are 3 things you need to know: Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in above expectations at 2.9%. The increase primarily...
The Fed Funds futures market is pricing in roughly 10 quarter-point rate hikes this year. The benchmark 10-year yield was up +56 basis points for April. 2022 so far has seen the worst total return start for the 10-year Treasury (or proxies) since 1788, just before George Washington’s presidency. It appears that much of this tightening cycle has already been priced into the bond market – even...
Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals. Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11th and although Wall Street analysts have recently...
Global equities ended the year near record highs even as the current surge in COVID-19 cases surpassed peak levels last seen since the start of the pandemic. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 finished up +27% for 2021 hitting 70 all-time highs and completing its best three-year stretch since 1999 - “Let’s Go Crazy”!Not everyone was “Partying Like It’s 1999”. The areas of...
By: Steven L. Yamshon, Ph.D., Managing Principal The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) bank knows that there is too much liquidity in the system but has mixed feelings about reducing it. My sense is that the Fed will need to see that the following five factors are in place before they do anything: An unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 3.8%;Prime-age (25-54) labor force participation close to...
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